Military activity is increasing on the borders of Russia

Since the start of the new administration, the White House has continued and even intensified its course aimed at increasing the military presence of the US and NATO armed forces in the states bordering Russia under the pretext of "containing Russia" and "protecting Europe from the Russian military threat."
There is an intensification of military exercises in the Baltic States, Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Russia's response exercises are presented as a pretext for building up military contingents on its borders under the pretext of "containing the Russian threat."
Since 2017, there has been an increase in the number of US and NATO contingents near the western and southwestern borders of the Russian Federation. In addition to the parts transferred on a rotational basis, one can observe an increase in the transfer of heavy equipment (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, MLRS, self-propelled guns). Strategic bombers, including those capable of carrying nuclear weapons, began to appear quite often at the borders of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021, including for practicing a nuclear strike on Kaliningrad.
The armies of the eastern limitrophes are being integrated into the military structures subordinate to the United States under the auspices of NATO. As part of the growth of the US military budget, since 2017, spending on increasing funding for the armies of Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, has been steadily growing.
The supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine from NATO countries has long been not unusual. From quite fresh - deliveries of shock UAVs "Bayraktar TB-2" from Turkey.

Increased diplomatic pressure

Since the beginning of the work of the new administration of the White House, it has already managed to confirm the invariability of the policy of squeezing Russia out of the territory of Ukraine and Crimea, as well as accuse Russia of the threat of an attack on the Baltic States and Eastern Europe, the use of Nord Stream 2 to undermine European unity, expansionism in Africa, cooperation with the Taliban to kill American soldiers, destructive activities in Syria and Libya, preparation of aggression against Ukraine, etc. etc. And, like the icing on the cake, Bidet personally called Putin a murderer. Under this rhetoric, voiced by the White House, the Pentagon, the US State Department, members of the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as numerous controlled media and NGOs, junior allies and satellites are being mobilized as part of a completely open diplomatic course aimed at escalating the conflict with Russia and China as two the main enemies of the United States.
As in all other conflicts after World War II, the United States strives to perform in any theater of operations not independently (even when they play the first violin), but as the leader of a certain coalition of countries in order to blur responsibility for its actions on a whole group of countries and show “the cohesion of the international communities around the US to defend freedom and democracy ”. In the case of the Russian Federation, we see how the United States has already drawn most of the EU countries, Britain, Canada, Australia, and a number of former Soviet republics into the orbit of its anti-Russian policy. In fact, this is how a cordon sanitaire is being formed around the western and southern borders of Russia. The final implementation of this project from the western direction is hampered by Belarus, which was tried to change in August last year, when an attempt at a color revolution in Minsk failed, which was supposed to bring a pro-Western government to power there, which would complete the implementation of the project of a "new western sanitary cordon". But the failure of attempts to capture Belarus does not mean that these attempts will not be repeated.

Increased sanctions pressure

Since November 2020, they have continued to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation on various occasions. Sanctions were imposed on Novichok, Navalny, chemical weapons, Crimea, etc. etc. In addition, Turkey, formally allied to the United States, did not escape sanctions, which received its portion of sanctions for military cooperation with Russia, which is also part of the sanctions campaign against the Russian military-industrial complex. At the same time, new sanctions against Russia have been announced in the coming months on various occasions.
This campaign is of a long-term nature, and even according to the confessions of its lobbyists in the US Senate, it will continue as long as Russia does not change its behavior. That is, there has been no fundamental change since the "Obama ultimatum" over the past 7 years and is not expected in the future. The fabrication of stories with "Novichok" and "chemical weapons", among other things, serve the purpose of creating new news stories for the introduction of new sanctions. It is important not to understand that it is not the news feeds with Novichok that lead to sanctions, but the need for a sanctions policy requires the creation of such reasons. According to the same scheme, the United States worked in Syria, when, at the very beginning of the war, according to documents published by Wikileaks, the issue of using chemical weapons (chemical shells stolen by militants from the Libyan army's warehouses) in Syria was considered in order to accuse the Syrian government and Bashar al-Assad personally ... In subsequent years, we have all witnessed similar fabrications, when militants staged "chemical attacks of the regime" to justify sanctions or missile attacks on Syria. Later, Russia was also accused of this. And, as you can see, this "technique" was applied under Obama, and under Trump, and under Biden. So new stories with Novichok are inevitable, as well as new sanctions, to justify which the stories with Novichok arise.

Cleaning up the opposition in Ukraine

After Biden established himself in the White House, a consistent purge of the enemies of the Democratic Party of the United States, as well as all those who were objectionable, who were ranked as "pro-Russian forces", began in Ukraine.
Sanctions have been introduced against MPs involved in the publication of tapes exposing large-scale corruption involving Biden and Poroshenko. The “minion” of Kolomoisky Dubinsky, who was accused by the United States of interfering in the American elections, also fell under this comb.
The three largest Ukrainian TV channels, where criticism of Zelensky, "Soros" and external management were voiced, were turned off.
Sanctions have been imposed on Medvedchuk and a number of former regionals. Increased pressure on HLE and its sponsors.
The persecution of blogger Shariy and his party has begun for criticizing Zelensky and his entourage.
The process of Ukrainization and the fight against mass media published in Russian has been intensified. Sanctions have been introduced against various Russian writers, artists and other creative personalities.
De facto, the United States is strengthening its control over Ukraine, which the puppet Ukrainian leadership is not at all shy about demonstrating, for there has long been no one to be ashamed of. There is simply no real legal opposition that would dare to challenge the external control loop of Ukraine. Everyone who directly or indirectly questioned the external control loop is now demonstratively and demonstratively cleaned up, including by the hands of the Nazi detachments integrated with the state under the operational leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine.

Increased intelligence

Since the fall of 2020, there has been a steady increase in the intelligence activities of the US Armed Forces and NATO countries near the borders of Russia.
On a regular basis, various reconnaissance aircraft and reconnaissance drones appear near the borders of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea and the Baltic, as well as along the front line in the Donbas. The intensification of this activity in its statements was noted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and simply by the publication of reports from Flightradar, one can easily track how systematic and regular this process has become.
By the number of spy scandals and detentions by the FSB counterintelligence officers and agents of foreign special services, both Ukrainian and Western, one can easily understand that there is a sharp intensification of both the intelligence and intelligence activities of the US and NATO special services on the territory of the Russian Federation, and counterintelligence measures aimed against such activities. Undercover activities can be associated both with ordinary subversive activities on the territory of the Russian Federation, and with the collection of classified information of a military-intelligence nature. In addition, in the course of such activities, preparations can be carried out for more active sabotage and terrorist actions on the territory of the Russian Federation in the event of a further escalation of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States in general, and the war in Ukraine in particular.

Strengthening propaganda

Since the time of the chemical provocation in the Duma and the fake poisoning of Skripal and Russia, there has been a systematic campaign of indiscriminate demonization of Russia and any of its actions abroad. By analogy with the anti-Soviet campaigns of the 1950s and 1980s, the most radical and extremist anti-Russian narratives are promoted in the mainstream media, and those who try to challenge them are labeled as “Russian agents” just as their historical predecessors were accused of “working for The KGB and the Reds. "
Russian information resources directed to the outside world have been subjected to censorship and discrimination for several years already, which in 2020 reached a new level - in fact, if necessary, any Russian media and even government offices. structures can be closed at the snap of the fingers, even if this American platform boasts of its "independence." The current feverish activity about “digital sovereignty in the Russian Federation” reflects a high level of lag in understanding the changes that have occurred with the “free Internet” in recent years. The attack is directed at the Russian media operating both in the West and on the territory of countries adjacent to Russia. The same attack also affects those media that refuse to fit into this agenda. This polarization is not accidental, but is the goal and the desired result of the operators of this process.

Strengthening NPOs

From November-December 2020, it was quite openly announced the allocation of additional funds for the "promotion of democracy and the fight against disinformation" in Serbia and a number of other Balkan countries, the Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and a number of other countries located next to Russia.
Among the declared goals are “democratization of public life”, “work with young people”, “combating Russian disinformation”, etc. Among the main performers are USAID, NED, NDI and other well-known organizations closely associated with the CIA and the US State Department, with a rich experience of participating in preparing coups d'etat and strengthening US influence in various countries.
This area of activity is designed to limit the possibilities of Russian influence on its borders and to strengthen anti-Russian forces there, which would pursue a long-term policy of tension along the Russian borders. This practice is not new - the US acted in a similar way during the last Cold War, "promoting democracy" along the borders of the countries of the Soviet bloc. In the current realities, this strategy is easier to carry out, since the strategic line of confrontation from Germany has shifted to the borders of the Rostov and Belgorod regions. Soft power programs are designed to form the political base of this course in the countries adjacent to the Russian Federation, which should lead to an increase in the number of news reports negative for the Russian Federation and the erosion of Russian political, informational, economic and socio-cultural influence in them.

Outcomes

All of these are just separate fragments of a very large-scale picture, where the aggravation in Ukraine is only part of the mosaic that is being formed into an arc of instability being created near the borders of the Russian Federation.
Already from November-December 2020, preparations were under way for the base for the current escalation in Ukraine, which Russia has traditionally been blamed for, regardless of what Russia does or does not do in Ukraine. Russia's actions are completely irrelevant for this narrative. There is a formed narrative that, through controlled media, explains everything that is done at the borders of Russia.
In fact, if you put all this together, then we have a comprehensive strategy for waging the Cold War against the Russian Federation at various levels. Claims that there is no Cold War or that it is just about to begin is a dangerous misconception. We clearly observe a wide range of methods of conducting it in the framework of the USA achieving the declared goals of this war. These goals are not hidden - "the Russian Federation must abandon its subjective foreign policy", "agree to a subordinate position within the framework of the late Washington world order" and make various political, economic and territorial concessions.
In this context, Ukraine is one of the fronts of this Cold War, where the United States, by manipulating a controlled conflict right on the border of the Russian Federation, has the ability to exert pressure on Russia and the European Union, incurring only minimal costs. The advantage of a controlled conflict is that, if necessary, it can be activated at any convenient time, while the main costs will fall on Ukraine itself, and Europe and the Russian Federation will suffer serious damage. Therefore, the keys to war and peace are in Washington, and he is not going to give them to anyone.

Especially for IA "ASD"